The Libyan Conflict andThe Transnationalisation Of Terrorism inThe Sahel Region

• Celestine Emeka Ekwuluo

  MIR,Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria; and PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0153-5475

• Adaeze Janice Erondu

  MIR,Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria; and PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Gideon Ogonna Ibeakuzie

  MIR,Department of Political Science, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria; and PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Kennedy Oberhiri Obohwemu

  PhD,Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5175-1179

• Oladipo Vincent Akinmade

  MPH,Digital Health and Rights Project (Center for Interdisciplinary Methodologies, CIM), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5053-2716

• Oluwafemi Emmanuel Ooju

  MSc,World Health Organization, Abuja, Nigeria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4716-5200

• Eddy Eidenehi Esezobor

  PhD,Department of Management Studies, Universidad Católica San Antonio de Murcia (UCAM), Murcia, Spain; and PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9986-5734

• Festus Ituah

  PhD,School of Health and Sports Science, Regent College, London, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1292-0678

• Daniel Obande Haruna

  MSc,Department of Psychology, St. Mary’s University, London, United Kingdom; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8004-7794

• Solomon Atuman

  MPH,FHI 360; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Jerry Soni

  MPH,United Nations World Food Programme, Damascus, Syria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Jennifer Adaeze Chukwu

  PhD,World Health Organization, United Nations House, Abuja, Nigeria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  Author

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1003-4664

• Abba Sadiq Usman

  MScPH,Nutrition and Health Department, Action Against Hunger, Maiduguri Field Office, Nigeria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Perpetual Ogechukwu Nwankwo

  PhD,School of Public Health, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research& Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

• Obioma Chidumaga Aririsukwu

  MBBS,Department of Medicine, St. François Medical Center, Abuja, Nigeria; and Department of Interdisciplinary Research & Statistics, PENKUP Research Institute, Birmingham, United Kingdom.

  Author

The collapse of state authority in Libya after the 2011 uprising has produced a chain of security consequences that continue to shape the wider Sahel. This paper examines how the Libyan conflict created conditions that encouraged the spread of terrorist activity across the region, with particular attention to arms proliferation, the movement of foreign fighters and the growth of ungoverned spaces that allow violent groups to operate with relative freedom. The study draws on a qualitative case study design supported by interview material from the wider research, which provides grounded insight into how Libya’s internal fragmentation became linked to regional insecurity rather than remaining a self-contained crisis. Rather than treating Libya as an isolated arena of state collapse, the paper conceptualises it as a catalytic node within a wider ecosystem of fragile states, porous borders and historically marginalised communities.The analysis is informed by state fragility theory and relative deprivation perspectives. These frameworks help explain how the breakdown of governance structures in Libya interacted with long-standing political and economic pressures in neighbouring Sahelian states. The argument shows that Libya’s collapse intensified existing vulnerabilities in Mali, Niger and Chad, encouraged the circulation of weapons and fighters, and weakened already fragile border management systems. These developments strengthened the operational reach of armed groups and complicated national and regional attempts to respond to rising insecurity.The paper contributes to regional security research through three main insights. It clarifies the pathways through which local state collapse can generate transnational terrorist dynamics. It demonstrates the value of analysing conflict spillover through a multi-level lens that links domestic governance failures to regional patterns of violence. It also highlights the limitations of current security responses that treat Sahelian states as discrete units rather than parts of an interconnected security landscape. The study offers a grounded and theoretically informed account of how Libya’s post-2011 crisis has reshaped security conditions across West and North Africa and points to the need for more coordinated and context-sensitive regional strategies.

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Copyright (c) 2026 Ekwuluo, Perpetual Ogechukwu Nwankwo, Abba Sadiq Usman, Jennifer Adaeze Chukwu, Jerry Soni, Solomon Atuman, Daniel Obande Haruna, Festus Ituah, Eddy Eidenehi Esezobor, Oluwafemi Emmanuel Ooju, Oladipo Vincent Akinmade, Kennedy Oberhiri Obohwemu, Gideon Ogonna Ibeakuzie, Adaeze Janice Erondu, Obioma Chidumaga Aririsukwu (Author)

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